Collapse of the Dollar? PRINT
The US Dollars that are blowing
around represent the potential collapse
of the dollar due to the uncontrollable spending of the federal
government and represents one of the following points of
interest:
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The United States is essentially bankrupt with over thirteen
trillion dollars in debt and more being added by the minute.
The time will shortly come when we will not have enough money in
the federal budget to pay the interest on America's borrowed
money. When that day arrives, the US Treasury Secretary will
declare a "force measure". Within days of this repudiation of the
US deficit, everyone will be scrambling to dump their US currency.
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A dollar collapse is when the value of the dollar falls so
fast that all those who hold dollars panic, and sell them at any
cost. The collapse of the dollar means that everyone is trying to
sell their dollar-denominated assets, and no one wants to buy
them, driving the value of the dollar down to near zero.
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We have never seen a collapse of a currency like the dollar.
Even the hyperinflation during Germany's Wiemar Period cannot
serve as an example. Since the dollar is the reserve currency of
most of the world, a panic out of the dollar means more dollars
will return to the U.S. shores than any country has ever
experienced. Other countries have had collapsed currencies, but
never in the history of world of finance has so much currency been
held outside a country of issue that could come flying back,
almost on a moments notice. If the panic out of the dollar starts,
even if Bernanke stops printing money (unlikely), all the dollars
flying back into the U.S. could cause a huge price inflation all
on its own.
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The Office of Management and Budget forecasts that, by the end
of fiscal year 2012, gross federal debt will total $16.3 trillion.
Thus, the debt will equal 101% of gross domestic product, which
represents a milestone in the U.S. economy. Public debt alone,
which excludes amounts that the government essentially owes
itself, will be 67% of GDP by the end of fiscal 2012.
-
President Obama's budget plans call for running the national
debt to $16.2-trillion by 2012, and an astounding $20-trillion by
2015. The projected run-up in the national debt from
2009-2015 is equivalent to the total debt accrued under the
previous 43 presidents combined.
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It took the U.S. government 191 years, from 1791 until 1982,
to run up its first trillion dollars in debt. It only took
four years after that for Congress to add another trillion dollars
to the total.
-
Don't blame the rising debt on inflation: Between 1946
and 1982, the national debt was virtually unchanged, even with
inflation taken into account. However, all that changed in
1983. Since then, with the notable exceptions of 2000 and
2001, the national debt has crept upward at an exponential pace.
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Our founding fathers weren't adept at managing debt
either. In 1791, the national debt was a mere $75
million. But that is equivalent to $5.2 trillion in 2008
dollars if you take into account then-year debt relative to the
GDP.
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The US government is funding its deficit spending by borrowing
at an unsustainable rate. China holds over a trillion
dollars worth of US Treasury bonds and debt. An even uglier
fact is that China holds massive investments in private US
corporations and has hidden the extent of its holdings through
third parties. Simply put, China has the power to destroy what is
left of America's fleeced financial system. If China sells its
massive dollar holdings, the value of the 'mighty US dollar' will
plummet. If America fails to pay its debt, China can claim
America's government assets in the same way a bank forecloses on
your house if you don't make the payments.
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Sometime between 2030 and 2040, mandatory spending (primarily
Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest on the national
debt) will exceed tax revenue. In other words, all discretionary
spending (e.g., defense, homeland security, law enforcement,
education, etc.) will require borrowing and related deficit
spending.
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The Federal Reserve Bank continues to print money at will. The
billions of dollars that have been created out of thin air because
of the stimulus package are only decreasing the value of the
dollar. Not only is the value of the dollar decreasing, the
Federal Reserve Bank is causing people to do things that they
normally would not do. With extremely low interest rates people
are going to buy homes. There is no problem with people buying
homes except that many of these homebuyers cannot truly afford
homes. For reference to this take a look at the subprime mortgage
crisis.
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Public debt owned by foreigners has increased to approximately
$4.5 trillion. As a result, a large percentage of the interest
payments are now leaving the country, which is different from past
years when interest was paid to U.S. citizens holding the public
debt. Nearly half of the debt increases over the 2009-2019 period
will be due to interest. The debt is projected to nearly double to
$20 trillion by 2015, but is expected to increase to nearly 100%
of GDP by 2020 and remain at that level thereafter. These
estimates assume real GDP growth (after inflation) ranging from
2.6% to 4.6% annually from 2010 through 2019, at 24% and 20%
respectively.
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In 2009 a number of countries, including China and Russia, proposed that the dollar
should be replaced with a global currency. This would create the
biggest overhaul of the world's monetary system since the Second
World War. If another currency or basket of currencies replaced
the dollar as the reserve currency, the U.S. will need to offer
higher interest rates to attract capital, reducing long-term
economic growth. It would cause a Depression of dismal
proportions.
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At every step in this great dollar decline, the Fed chief has
sworn that he supports a strong dollar. He has promised that the
dollar would retain its dominant role as the world's reserve
currency. But in reality, Bernanke has done absolutely nothing to
halt the dollar's fall. To the contrary: The Fed Chief has been
printing new, unbacked dollars like there's no tomorrow — a move
that can only cause the dollar's value to vanish faster!
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American exports are continuing their decline; imports are
also plummeting, but not as sharply as exports, contributing to a
widening trade gap. In essence, America's economy will continue to
decline. So here we have a perfect fiscal storm; quantitative
easing by the Federal Reserve, massive overseas borrowing by the
Federal government to pay its basic operating expenses, and
massive borrowing or printing of dollars to pay for imports not
covered by the net value of America's exports.
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